Really, if it weren’t so tragic, if it didn’t have to do with war, the sequence of events that led to the Israel-Gaza conflict would be comical.

In the days leading up to the Israeli Air Force air strike, as Palestinian militants launched more and more rockets in an effort to induce a new cease-fire from Israel, under better terms than the one that expired December 19th, Israeli politicians wavered between preaching patience and calling for attacks, with both sides appearing to have the February elections in mind.

On Christmas, it appeared the calm might extend a little longer: Ehud Barak appeared on a comedy show in Israel (something akin to SNL, and he did a fine job ribbing himself, by all reports), and a news story floated in national newspapers that soldiers were instructed to use up their vacation days this year, because they wouldn’t transfer over to the next year.

Perhaps thinking themselves so clever, Barak and co. then ordered the air strike last Saturday that indeed shocked the Gazans and has lit up the world. And things haven’t slowed down yet.

It should be said that political considerations appear to be out of the picture so far, as Ahron Bregman pointed out in his interview. War in any case will benefit the right wing, and hence the opposition leader and election front runner Benjamin Netanyahu. Ehud Olmert is on his way out and his hoped-for legacy of peace has been postponed, at the least. Tzipi Livni, fresh off a declaration of war principles in Paris, stands to lose out in this war politically anyway, not only because Netanyahu benefits but because her rival on the left, Barak, is running the campaign and stands to gain the most from success. Barak’s actions should be watched to see if he gets greedy in his aims, but for now, he has been restrained.

That said, the objectives of this mission have remained vague. Every pertinent Israeli leader has stated their disinterest in occupying Gaza or waging a long-term ground war. The goal is to weaken Hamas and get them to sue for a cease-fire, allowing Israel to impose better conditions (no rocket fire, for one), but Hamas is nothing if not prideful. And the balance between bringing Hamas to their knees with pinpointed assassinations and enraging them with 400 deaths, a quarter of which the U.N. estimates are civilians, is a very delicate one that Israel has struggled with in the past.

Mainstream Israelis have two sets of memories fueling their views on the conflict. On the one hand, the constant stream of rockets was becoming intolerable even at a low level, and the increase pushed Israel over the brink. “It was too much, I’m glad we’re attacking,” a cab driver told me Sunday, then complaining about Russia’s call for peace by referencing Georgia. “[The war’s] no good, but it’s scary, a rocket hit the house next to mine,” a girl on the train said to me about Beersheeva. Even the leftist Haaretz editorial page acknowledged that time had come to strike, if in a limited fashion.

While the tempers are high, however, in the back of everybody’s mind is the failed war against Lebanon of two years ago. Hezbollah was stronger than Hamas is now, but the failure to damage the operation – in fact, Israel emboldened and strengthened Hezbollah – lingers as a warning for this time around. World opinion also flew in the face of Israeli efforts, and while there is broad support or condoning for Israel now, any significant continuation is bound to harm Israel’s world status again.

So the country is of two minds as we watch the news and the problems in the South. Life goes on with no bumps in central and northern Israel. The citizens watch with battle-hardened anxiety, glad for the “punishment” of Hamas forces but uneager to face the consequences. The political leaders grapple with whether sending in the ground troops will be worth the casualties and swing in opinion, or if enough has been done.

The whole Gaza situation has taken a sick turn in the past two weeks, and the fear is that a certain eerie resonance to two years ago will linger. One can only hope that the Olmert-Livni-Barak trio will decide enough is enough on time, before that echo grows to a roar.

Tags: dan shvartsman, gaza