By Member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), led by Bahrain, have declined to offer Iraq an immediate path to membership of the body that carries substantial economical and political clout in the region, but the question needs to be asked, does Iraq really need to be a member of the GCC?
US Defence Secretary Robert Gates proposed the idea in Manama, Bahrain, last weekend. Addressing the Manama Dialogue, Gates suggested that Iraq should be included in regional organizations in order to help bolster its rehabilitation.
“If you look closely at Iraq’s economic and political potential, about what it can offer the Middle East, you will see that it is in everyone’s strategic interests to support the new government and the people of Iraq in whatever way you can.
“Iraq can only play a constructive role in this region if it is on an equal footing diplomatically, which also requires its government to take proactive steps, such as continuing to appoint its own ambassadors,” Gates said.
“Regional engagement also means that Iraq should be included in regional forums for economic and security cooperation, and considered for membership in Middle East organizations,” he added.
This is not the first time that the U.S. has sought to tie Iraq to the GCC, but this latest call comes at a time when violence is low and the economic opportunities on offer are leading the war torn country to be labeled an ‘emerging market’ like its Gulf neighbours. It also comes on the back of the recently signed agreement that will see U.S. force leave the country by the end of 2011, thus removing a significant obstacle to warmer Arab relations with Baghdad.
Washington’s priorities for a bloody and expensive war that is universally unpopular and has become bone of contention back home are clear: prevent Iraq from slipping back into the sectarian chaos from which it has only just emerged; limit the influence of Iran.
This can be achieved through several steps; hand over security to Iraqi forces as soon as it is realistically possible; oversee a transition to a sustainable democracy; engage Iraq with its neighbours; and rebuild the economy.
Integrating Iraq closer with the GCC would, in theory, achieve most, if not all, of the above goals and would entrench Iraq as a responsible and prominent player in a volatile region. But while these ambitions are admirable, there is no certainty that the political and economic gains made over the past 12 months will hold once the U.S. leaves.
On top of this the political realities of the Gulf States towards Iraq, and towards each other, continue to hamper progress.
Immediately after Mr. Gates’s comments, senior figures from the GCC and member states were quick to dampen any speculation that Iraq would be asked to join the oil rich group.
GCC Secretary-General Abdul Rahman Al Attiyah ruled out expanding the council to include Iraq, saying that such a move needed careful consideration, according to a report on the UAE based Gulf News website:
“The council as it is has made several achievements, and any option to change it necessitates a cautious study,” Al Attiyah said. “Iraq in its current circumstances and even in normal circumstances is not ready to join the council,” he added.
Bahrain daily Gulf Daily News reported that the Bahrain Foreign Minister, Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, said whilst there were no immediate plans to include Iraq because the organization had not yet defined its own internal structure, it might become a possibility in the future.
“There are certain agreements that have to be enforced,” Al Khalifa was quoted as saying in the report.
“When the GCC was established we did not restrict its membership to any countries – it is not an exclusive club.
“Once the GCC is a complete unit we will allow any of our brothers to come and join.”
Meanwhile an editorial piece in The National, a newspaper sponsored by the government of Abu Dhabi, on Sunday claimed that Mr. Gates’ comments were ill-advised, and that the GCC could not accept Iraq as a member state.
“The council is built on the commonalities in political structures, geographical location and economic stature of its member states, which provide the necessary framework for co-operation on matters affecting all its members: there is an internal coherence to GCC nations that Iraq does not share, despite its vital role in regional stability and development,” it said.
These reports demonstrate the issues under the spotlight within the GCC. The six-member body consisting of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates was formed in 1981 as a trade bloc. Over the past three decades closer ties have been forged between the states, and more recently plans were announced for a joint-custom union, common currency and Central Bank.
Of these however only the Central Bank is making any progress: Oman dropped out of the unified currency in 2007 and the customs union is far from a reality since its inception in 2001. Politically, friction is high between Saudi Arabia, the richest and previously most powerful member, and a couple of the rapidly advancing nations.
Whilst most of the GCC members have restored diplomatic relations with Baghdad after an initially frosty approach to the Shiite-led government of Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have continually refused to cancel Iraq’s Saddam era debts, and populist politicians in Kuwait are playing hard-ball over their one-time occupier.
Iraq once embodied all that the Gulf States aspire to; it was once a powerful economic, cultural and political force in the Arab world, a true leader that embraced multi-ethnicity and education, with a diversified economy and industrial sector that others could only admire.
So what of Iraq and the Arab world now? It is unlikely that Gates made his comments without some consultation with officials in Baghdad, and Iraqi officials understand the political and economic benefits of working closely with the Gulf Arab neighbors.
Most telling are plans unveiled by government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh at a conference in Washington in early December for a European Union-style organisation which envisioned Iraq at the heart of a trading, security and energy bloc that would include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, Jordan, Syria and Turkey and later perhaps Gulf states.
Although it is hard to see this plan as a short to medium term reality, especially until the power-struggle that is inevitable once the U.S. withdraws is played out, Iraq is looking at other ways to integrate economically with the Arab world.
Already a member of the Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement – approved by the Arab League in 2005 to complete an Arab economic bloc that can compete internationally – Iraq has announced several plans this year to build Free Trade Zones with Turkey, Kuwait, Iran and Jordan, some of which are already under construction. A number of bilateral and regional trade agreements exist within the Middle East, which include the Gulf States, making a complex web.
Inter-Arab trade has grown steadily since 2000, according to a recent report published by the Arab Investment Guarantee Corporation, and reaching $137 billion, 11.1% of total Arab foreign trade, in 2007. The report attributed the rise to the activation of the Arab Free Trade Zone and application of the complete custom exemptions.
Local press reported recently that Iraq is to resume membership of two regional trade bodies, the Federation of GCC Chambers of Commerce and the Arab Sea Port Federation, from which it was expelled following the 1990 invasion of Kuwait.
There is also the proposed GCC railway, which was approved by member states at a meeting in November, and could be set to include Iraq through a special rail link with Kuwait that is currently being considered by both parties. This would, according to Sir Graham Boyce, former UK ambassador to Kuwait, Egypt and Qatar, enable closer economic integration between the GCC and Arab world, from which it is somewhat isolated.
On top of this Iraq has been flagged as a possible supplier of gas to the EU’s strategic Nabucco project, a planned natural gas pipeline that will transport natural gas from Turkey to Austria, via Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary and reduce dependence on Russian energy supplies. It will most probably be connected through the Arab Gas Pipeline running from Egypt.
Once a proud, modern state, Iraq has suffered decades of war, neglect and humiliation. Its return to the regional stage is fraught with peril, both internally and from local conflicts of interests, as well as geopolitical grandstanding by the old and new global superpowers.
As a member of an up and coming bloc that will hold local political power and international economic influence, membership of the GCC would be no bad thing in itself, but a strong, multiethnic and independent Iraq acting as a gateway between the Gulf and the rest of the Arab world would be better.
Tags: gulf
