By Jonathan Mok has previously interviewed scholar Ahron Bregman on the subject of Israeli military actions.
Jonathan Mok: What can you say about the latest Israeli assault against Hamas? Do you think that the Olmert government would like to send a signal to the Obama administration?
Ahron Bregman: The Israeli military operation in Gaza is not about sending a signal to the future Obama administration, but a response to a strong feeling that Hamas has overstepped the mark, by firing rockets into Israel. It is true that thus far there have been few casualties in Israel, but the rockets did disturb life and worryingly – from an Israeli point of view – Hamas obtained medium-range missiles that could reach major populated areas.
For now, Israel enjoys strong American support and it is unlikely that in the foreseen future Washington will stop Israel’s military operations. Like the Israelis, Washington regards Hamas as “the bad guys”.
Jonathan: The responses of various Arab states and Mahmoud Abbas are different this time. While they condemn the Israeli attack, they also blame Hamas for sparking the action. Do you see a new departure from the traditional responses of Arab leaders?
Ahron: Don’t forget that the Palestinian Authority and such countries as Egypt and Jordan regard Hamas as a threat to their own regimes. Egypt, in particular, is upset with Hamas after warning it time and again that the Israelis lose patience with rocket attacks on her towns and cities and that it would be better if Hamas stopped these actions before the Israelis hit back.
Jonathan: Will this Israeli operation be successful? Would it have failed if Gilad Shalit ends up being wounded or killed?
Ahron: The Israelis would have liked to see a different Gaza, where Hamas is not in power and no rockets are fired from there into Israel. Of course, the Israelis would have also liked to see Gilad Shalit released and returned to his family. But it would be difficult to topple Hamas and release Shalit. For now the aims of the IDF operation are limited, namely (in the words of Prime Minister Olmert) “to restore normal life and quiet to residents of the South who, for many years, have suffered from unceasing rocket and mortar fire and terrorism …”
The question, of course, is how this could be achieved? Well, the Israelis hope that by sending a horrifying message and hitting hard at the Gaza Strip, Hamas will eventually ask for a cease fire and when this is agreed upon Hamas will then hesitate to break it by firing again at Israel. Having said that, military campaigns have their own dynamics and it is difficult to predict, at this stage, how things might develop in the future.
Jonathan: Will it be Ehud Barak or Tzipi Livni who will benefit more if this Israeli attack is judged a success?
Ahron: As the minister in charge of the IDF, Ehud Barak supervises the military operation in Gaza. Thus, in the coming days – and we should remember that we are just before general election in Israel – Barak will be the most dominant politician on the Israeli scene.
If things go well then it may help him in the coming election (until recently polls predicted him and his Labour party a humiliating defeat). But if rockets keep landing and the general feeling in Israel being that it is losing the war, then the public will turn its anger and frustration at Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni (Prime Minister Olmert is on the way out anyway) and the victor in the general election will probably be Benjamin Netanyahu.
Jonathan: What’s next for Israel and Hamas?
Ahron: In the end, after more blood and misery, the war will end with an indirect agreement between Hamas and Israel, similar in many ways to the deal reached last June.
Hamas will insist on a cessation of Israeli attacks on Gaza and on its people in the West Bank, a reopening of the Gaza border crossings for food and other supplies, and a release of Palestinian prisoners.
Israel will demand a halt to rocket, missile and mortar attacks on her towns and cities.
In an ideal world – and given that the military message Israel sent is fully understood by Hamas – the war should be stopped now. Alas, it is not an ideal world.
Yep… it will help someone in the elections.
For a really smart and intellectualy honest
analysis go to counterpunch.org and read Gordon Neve’s piece.
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I am a 39 year-old Christian living in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. The reason I am writing this letter is because I want to express my unyielding love and support for the Jewish people and for their
G-d-given homeland of Israel. I watch daily as many of Israel’s surrounding neighbors are seeking her destruction and it troubles me.
However, I do know that the word of Adonai clearly reveals to us that Israel will be saved and will never be destroyed. All those who are seeking Israel’s demise should know that they are fighting against the True and Living God of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob, and that is a fight that they CANNOT and WILL NOT win.
Adonai made an everlasting covenant with Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob, and gave the Land of Israel to their descendants for an everlasting possession.
Note the following:
After Lot had gone, the Lord said to Abram, “Look as far as you can see in every direction—north and south, east and west. I am giving all this land, as far as you can see, to you and your descendants as a permanent possession…Genesis 13:14-15
Also note the following regarding the re-establishment of Israel as a nation in 1948:
Therefore say, Thus saith the Lord God; I will even gather you from the people, and assemble you out of the countries where ye have been scattered, and I will give you the land of Israel…..Ezekiel 11:17
Everyone who is reading this email needs to understand that the Land of Israel belongs to the Jewish people by a covenantal decree from the Lord G-d Himself. This is exactly the reason why multiple millions of Israel’s enemies cannot remove her from the land.
It is my hope that the people committing the terrorist acts and seeking to destroy Israel and her people will come to recognize that the Lord God is defending her and it is in their best interest to cease these unproductive and consequential terrorist acts.
Yeshua, the Son of G-d and the only sacrifice for our sins, has redeemed me by his precious sinless blood, as was foretold by the Hebrew prophets Isaiah, Jeremiah, Micah, and others . It is my hope that all who are reading this may come to recognize and accept this Truth while there is still time.
To all Israel:
The Lord bless thee, and keep thee: the Lord make his face shine upon thee, and be gracious unto thee: the Lord lift up his countenance upon thee, and give thee peace….Numbers 6:24-26
My love for Israel and the Jewish people can only be measured by the Lord, as it was Him who put this love into me. G-d bless you always in Yeshua’s Name.
He That Has Ears To Hear, Let Him Hear……..
Dear Adam,
Thanks for reminding everyone why religion remains a regressive, irrational and downright dangerous influence on civilisation and society.
I’m sorry you have failed to appreciate quite how many holes science and philosophy have punctured in your bullshit fairy stories, but for those of us of independent, inquiring minds – free from indoctrination, fear and ignorance – your rant serves only to prove how ludicrous your belief system is.
And you go on about “truth”…!